Paul Leavy/The Valdosta Daily Times

VALDOSTA — The overall national economic picture portrayed daily on nationwide cable TV media stations presents such a bleak forecast that one commentator recently resorted to defining the “D” word for depression. Forget about the “R” word for recession.

The virulent combination of escalating gasoline prices, inflationary price increases on everything from groceries to airline tickets, a multi-billion dollar war in Iraq and Afghanistan, thousands of job layoffs, the weakening U.S. dollar, the financial impacts of illegal immigration, skyrocketing healthcare costs and the relentless bad news about the national real estate market make a smelly glass of sour milk that local economists just aren’t drinking.

That’s because they say the Valdosta Metropolitan Services Area, if not immune to the negative impacts of the hefty list above, is certainly in a position to weather the worst and will evolve into the land of fresh milk and economic honey — and in fairly short order.

The Homebuilders Association of South Georgia’s associates council got a quick, detailed review at a Wednesday luncheon from two local economists who listed fact after fact to show why the Lowndes region is holding steady, not growing but not receding, despite the bleak national outlook.

Dr. Cliff Lipscomb, assistant professor of Economics at Valdosta State University, joined Brad Lofton, executive director of the Valdosta-Lowndes County Industrial Authority, as guest speakers at the meeting.

They shared statistics and data to explain to the attending group of about 50 guests why this area is poised to come out strong on the other side of the national economic storm. Even HBA President Bill Gaskins jumped into the fray.

“We are nowhere even close to suffering as bad as the rest of the nation,” Gaskins said. “We’re holding steady. We’re actually anticipating a little growth in the coming year. We just want to get the word out. It depends on a lot of different things.”

Gaskins quoted Multiple Listing Service stats provided by the Valdosta Board of Realtors to give an example.

In 2006, there were 1,311 sales in the Valdosta area, compared to 1,319 sales. In the first quarter of 2007, there were 258 home sales of which 64 were new homes. And in the first quarter of 2008, there were 248 sales and 56 were new homes.

“We’re not growing but we’re holding steady,” Gaskins said. “If you look at the numbers, we’re not in a serious decline here. We’re just really blessed to be living in South Georgia. The growth is finally coming in our direction.”

Gaskins noted how important the construction industry is to the local economy. He said 2006 data from the National Association of Home Builders shows that construction industry pumped $127 million into the local economy in 2006 and created 3,514 jobs.

“That’s why housing is such a thermometer for gauging the local economy,” Gaskins said. “We have held our own. The economy will come back. It is not as bad as it seems.”

Lipscomb quoted his prediction that somewhere between 785 to 1,093 residential building permits will be approved in Lowndes County by the end of the year.

“For this year in the county, if we come in between 800 and 900 residential building permits, we’d be in line to make the same numbers of 2007,” Lipscomb said.

As for the increasing costs to build new homes, Lipscomb asked the home builders why the cost of concrete had risen so sharply.

A chorus responded with one word: “China.”

China, noted Lofton, who just returned from a trip there, is building nine cities as large as Atlanta. The developing nation’s demand for concrete, metal and any fuel-related product (shingles, for example, are made with petroleum product) for construction purposes is driving up the costs, the builders agreed.

Meanwhile the price of lumber has fallen. But the rising costs of metal, fuel related products and concrete have curtailed any savings in construction costs that might otherwise have been achieved, Lipscomb said.

As for home sales, new homes are not selling as much as existing homes in Valdosta, according to U.S. Census Bureau data provided to Lipscomb, who said some folks are being stubborn about seeking the highest possible price for their homes.

“A home on Jerry Jones Road has been at the same price for two years,” he said.

Gaskins said Realtors are having to rely on the availability of homes that are 10 to 15 years old to provide an affordable price range for less affluent homebuyers.

In the first quarter of 2008, Lowndes County saw 173 residential building permits pulled, with 105 in the county, 62 in Valdosta and 6 in Hahira, Lipscomb noted.

“Valdosta house prices seem a little high,” he said. “You may be able to buy a house cheaper in Atlanta, but then you have to deal with the commute.”

Lipscomb quoted federal information that shows that from the fourth quarter of 1994 to the fourth quarter of 2007, the Valdosta housing price index outpaced the nation all but four times in that period, “which means we are meeting the demand that’s in our market,” he said.

The J. N. Bray land that was recently sold at auction, with a size of 10 percent of the city’s corporate limits, will be developed in the city’s northeast quadrant along Inner Perimeter Road, spurring more economic growth, Lipscomb said.

“It will be interesting to watch what happens there,” he said.

Lofton spouted a flurry of facts about the area’s continuing success at luring new business and industry here. Steeda (100 new jobs), Martin’s Bakery (160 new jobs), Home Depot distribution (600 new jobs), True Flight Aerospace plane manufacturer (150 new jobs), among others, were cited as recent success stories.

“Things are unbelievably good,” Lofton said. “There is nowhere, including Savannah Ports, that is as situated for growth as we are. We were named the number one community for a logistics location by Expansion and Solutions Magazine. We created 1,000 new jobs last year with 13 new projects. From 2006 to 2007, commercial permits were up 246 percent. Moody Air Force Base is adding 1,200 new airmen and their families. South Georgia Medical Center is expanding. It is pretty remarkable right now.”

As for the area’s poor reputation for paying less than competitive wages, Lofton noted how Martin’s Bakery at first thought about lowering its wage rates because of Valdosta’s lower pay scale, but then decided to keep the same higher pay scale used by the company. The average annual wage on that scale is $52,000, Lofton said. The bakery plant is under construction near the Valdosta Regional Airport and should be operational in three months, Lofton said.

True Flight Aerospace, which manufactures the Tiger aircraft, returned from a recent trade show and reported that it had sold enough planes to cover the company’s first year of production. Construction of the plant at the Valdosta airport should begin within 60 to 90 days, Lofton said.

“Things are good. I want to thank you for what you do for our economy,” Lofton told the home builders.