By Kay Harris
VALDOSTA — The recession is more severe than previously thought and will last well into the fourth quarter of this year, according to University of Georgia economist Dr. Jeffrey M. Humphreys.
In a presentation Thursday, “Business Outlook 2009,” sponsored by Ameris Bank and the Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce, Humphreys characterized the recession as severe, not mild or moderate, but added that even though it’s the worst recession since the 1950s, it still is not as bad as the depression in the 1930s.
“It’s been years since we’ve had a true financial panic in this country, but every single state is in a recession now,” he said.
For those poised to take advantage of the upturn when it occurs, beginning in late 2009, there are many opportunities, but the overall wealth reduction of both individuals and companies has slowed the recovery process.
Humphreys spoke largely of Georgia’s economy, saying that the state’s woes mirror those of the nation, with housing and the credit crisis largely to blame for much of the issues currently. He predicted as credit loosens that the housing market will as well, but predicted a very slow year for builders.
Dr. Cliff Lipscomb of Valdosta State University echoed Humphreys’ statements, showing the number of building permits in 2008 were the lowest in years, with 594 countywide in 2008, 909 in 2007, and 1,023 in 2006.
Lipscomb said the recovery in Valdosta will be slow but steady, not a rapid rise, and reiterated that Valdosta has not suffered as much as the rest of the U.S.
“The rest of the country entered the recession in December of 2007, but it didn’t hit Valdosta until August/September of 2008, largely due to our diverse industry mix. We should be exiting the recession by the second half of 2009,” he said.
Following the presentations, Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce President Myrna Ballard asked Jody Redding, Sen. Johnny Isakson’s assistant, to stand and let the audience know that the bill the senator sponsored passed unanimously, allowing for a $15,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers on virtually any home that they own and occupy for at least two years, and that will not have to be paid back, unlike an earlier tax credit bill.
