The Sports Writer’s Picks
Published 8:00 am Friday, November 5, 2010
This is it, happy people. The last night of high school football’s regular season.
There are plenty of big games on the docket, and playoff spots and region titles are on the line for several local teams. I wish them all good luck, and expect to continue picking those teams’ games next week, when the playoffs start.
First, a look back at last week’s pick ’em. I finally had a good night picking out-of-town games, going 4-1. I missed on Berrien, which I will gladly take. Congrats to the Rebels for beating Jeff Davis and getting a much-needed victory this season. I also missed on Lowndes. I can say with certainty that I wasn’t the only one.
Last week: 9-3
Overall: 87-33 (.725)
We’ll start with a game that’s big, but not with a lot on the line. Valdosta travels to Colquitt County tonight. It’s a rivalry game, but both teams are already in the playoffs. This will decide the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. The winner gets a home game in the first round, while the loser goes on the road. I honestly don’t believe that’s a huge factor. The loser of this game is head and shoulders better than Jenkins (its opponent in the first round of the state playoffs), and shouldn’t have any problem on the road next week.
I realize it was taboo for writing in my 5 Thoughts that Valdosta is better off losing. This angered a lot of people. But I don’t understand why. The No. 3 seed is so much better off. The No. 2 seed is facing back-to-back playoff games at McEachern and at North Gwinnett. Why in the world would any team want that road?
I’d much rather be the No. 3 seed and go play an unproven playoff team in Stephenson in the second round, and avoid North Gwinnett until the semifinals.
But that’s just me.
Despite saying I think Valdosta is better off losing, I actually think the Wildcats are going to win tonight. It’s going to be a high-scoring game, but I believe Valdosta can run the ball and control the clock. Colquitt County will get its yards, but I don’t trust spread offenses in high school. Once a spread team gets in the red zone and runs out of room to work with, it becomes hard to stuff it in for touchdowns. The Packers had this problem last year with Lowndes.
The team that keeps pressure out of its quarterback’s face will win. I give Valdosta the edge in that department, because its ends can get to Tyler Brown better than the Packers’ defensive line can get to Ryan Whilden. If Whilden has time to get the ball to Malcolm Mitchell, the ’Cats should win this game. Valdosta over Colquitt County, 37-33.
Is there a bigger game in the state than the Swamp War? Clinch County hosts Charlton County for the Region 2-A title. It wouldn’t surprise anybody if these two teams met a month from now in the Georgia Dome for the state championship.
This is a great rivalry, and I look forward to going to Homerville to see it. Each team has a great quarterback/running back combo. The Panthers have Tray Dorsey and Anthony McNeil, and the Indians have Chris Milton and Tre Hamilton. With great players on offense, I expect this to be a higher scoring game. Whichever team can come up with the big stop late will probably win.
I give the edge to Clinch County. The Panthers have been eying this game for months. The fact that it’s at home for a region title after they lost to Charlton County 38-0 last year makes it that much more meaningful to them. Clinch County over Charlton County, 34-30.
Brooks County finds itself in the same position that the Cook Hornets were in last year. In 2009, the Hornets hosted Early County on the final night of the regular season to decide the No. 4 seed in Region 1-AA. Cook won, and the Hornets went on a nice run to the quarterfinals. That playoff experience has seemed to do wonders for this year’s Hornets team, as those players gained valuable experience.
Fast forward to tonight, and the Trojans are hoping for the same result. A win over Early County would give the young Trojans the No. 4 seed, and as Cook has proven over the years, the No. 4 seed in Region 1-AA can do some damage. Teams would not want to face a quarterback as dangerous as Malcolm Parrish in the postseason.
The Trojans played a very good Fitzgerald team hard on the road last week, and only lost 21-10. This team seems to be getting better. I think they’ll get by Early County tonight, and make the playoffs for the third straight year under Maurice Freeman. Brooks County over Early County, 23-14.
The final local game that determines a playoff spot tonight is Valwood against Flint River Academy. The Valiants need a win to make the playoffs. I was told by a Valwood fan on Valdosta State’s trip to Arkansas Tech last week that I need to pick against the Valiants so they will win. You know you’ve struggled at pick ’em when fans are telling you to pick against their teams. In some ways, that’s what kind of season it’s been for me.
But alas, I must follow my head. And my head tells me Valwood is going to defeat Flint River to get into the GISA playoffs. It would be a shame for last year’s Valwood team to get into the playoffs with a 1-9 record, but for this year’s team to miss out. It just wouldn’t be right. Valwood over Flint River Academy, 27-20.
Fates have already been sealed for Cook, Lanier County and Berrien.
Cook is the region champion in 1-AA, but there’s still one thing left for the Hornets to do in the regular season: finish perfect. The Hornets can go 10-0 with a win at Albany tonight. We saw what Tift County did to Lowndes in a so-called meaningless game for the Blue Devils last week. I don’t expect the Hornets to come out flat, though. Cook over Albany, 40-14.
Lanier County is out of the playoffs, but Wade Beale’s crew can finish above .500 with a win at home over Bacon County. The Bulldogs can also finish 4-4 in the brutal Region 2-A. I’d expect a big night from Anthony Ethridge in his final game in a Bulldog uniform. Lanier County over Bacon County, 32-14.
Berrien got its win last week, which is good, because tonight it has to play what will be an angry Thomasville team on the road. Better things are to come for Berrien in the future under Ryan Branch. Thomasville over Berrien, 37-14.
Valdosta State hosts West Georgia in the Battle for the Peach Basket on Saturday. This should be another close game for the Blazers. They’ve all been close so far, and with VSU’s inconsistent offense, there’s no reason to believe that’s going to change now. Good thing for the Blazers that their defense is so darn good.
West Georgia can make its season by beating VSU. The Wolves will play above their heads, and this game will come down to the fourth quarter again. But there’s too much at stake for VSU. The Gulf South Conference title and a first round bye are on the line. The Blazers won’t let that slip away. Valdosta State over West Georgia, 17-10.
Other games: Stephenson over M.L. King, Newnan over East Coweta, North Gwinnett over Peachtree Ridge, Cairo over Americus-Sumter, Ware County over Lakeside (Evans).