Scott Rolen is a Hall of Famer.

Todd Helton will have to wait at least another year.

And if fewer than a dozen voters had chosen differently, the outcome could have completely changed.

Rolen was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame Tuesday night in one of the closest votes ever. The longtime St. Louis Cardinals third baseman appeared on 76.3% of the total ballots, clearing the 75% threshold needed for induction by only five votes.

Todd Helton, the former Colorado Rockies first baseman, fell 11 votes short of induction to finish with 72.2%. Former closer Billy Wagner wasn’t far off either, earning 68.1% and finishing 27 votes short.

Rolen joins an exclusive club of Hall of Famers who were elected by such a narrow margin. Only 28 players have ever been elected by 10 or fewer votes, and only 13 by five or fewer.

Of course, in the end the margin doesn’t matter. Rolen will go down in history as one of baseball’s all-time greats just the same.

A seven-time All-Star, Rolen was the premier defensive third basemen of his generation and among the best ever all-around standouts at his position. He was an eight-time Gold Glove winner, posted a career .855 OPS, finished with 2,066 hits and 316 home runs and helped lead St. Louis to the 2006 World Series championship.

His 70.1 career wins above replacement also exceeds the average of the 17 third basemen who preceded him in the Hall of Fame and compares favorably to Ron Santo and Edgar Martinez.

Rolen’s enshrinement also caps off a remarkable and improbable rise that would have seemed highly unlikely just a few years ago. When Rolen first appeared on the ballot in 2018 he only earned 10.2% of the vote. The following year he earned 17.2%, but starting in 2020 he saw his fortunes rapidly improve, jumping to 35.3%, then to 52.9%, then to 63.2% before finally hitting 76.3% in his sixth year of eligibility.

According to MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, Rolen is the first player who has ever gotten less than 15% support his first year on ballot to eventually be elected by the Baseball Writers Association of America voters.

While coming so close and falling short surely stings for Helton and Wagner, history is on their side too. The vast majority of players who have approached 70% support made it to Cooperstown eventually and both will be strong favorites to earn induction next year.

But for now, Rolen will stand alongside Fred McGriff, who was unanimously selected by the hall’s Contemporary Era Players Committee last month, on stage in Cooperstown, N.Y. this summer to take his place among baseball’s immortals.

2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Results

Scott Rolen: 297 votes, 76.3%

Todd Helton: 281 votes, 72.2%

Billy Wagner: 265 votes, 68.1%

Andruw Jones: 226 votes, 58.1%

Gary Sheffield: 214 votes, 55%

Carlos Beltrán: 181 votes, 46.5%

Jeff Kent: 181 votes, 46.5% (final year on ballot)

Alex Rodriguez: 139 votes, 35.7%

Manny Ramirez: 129 votes, 33.2%

Omar Vizquel: 76 votes, 19.5%

Andy Pettitte: 66 votes, 17%

Bobby Abreu: 60 votes, 15.4%

Jimmy Rollins: 50 votes, 12.9%

Mark Buehrle: 42 votes, 10.8%

Francisco Rodriguez: 42 votes, 10.8%

Torii Hunter: 27 votes, 6.9%

Less than 5%: Bronson Arroyo, R.A. Dickey, John Lackey, Mike Napoli, Huston Street, Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, J.J. Hardy, Jhonny Peralta, Jered Weaver, Jayson Werth

Email: mcerullo@northofboston.com. Twitter: @MacCerullo.