KENT PATRICK: Punxsutawney Phil and the Big Shadow of 2025
Published 12:35 pm Saturday, February 8, 2025
- Kent Patrick
Punxsutawney Phil – arguably the most famous groundhog of all time – saw his shadow in 2025, predicting another six weeks of winter this year. However, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s records, cross-referenced with past weather data, Phil has only been accurate in his weather predictions about 39% of the time. This raises questions about whether Phil missed the blinding daylight of the 2023 and 2024 market rallies or the massive shadow of the 2022 stock market downturn.
Perhaps, just before being taken from his burrow, Phil glanced at his account statements and grew concerned about recent stock market valuations. Or maybe Phil simply dislikes spring, as he has predicted more winter over 100 times since 1887.
In the spirit of hoping Phil is wrong, let’s discuss how you can spring clean your investments now. This will help you move beyond the long shadows of recent stock market corrections and ensure you’re not overly reliant on stock markets reaching new highs. Call it 2025 Investment Spring Cleaning, a two-step process: Consolidate your scattered investment accounts.
Weed out overlapping positions to ensure your holdings are diversified.
Consolidate
Scattered holdings are like hanging your clothes in closets throughout the house or stowing them in boxes, out of sight. Imagine dressing for a formal occasion but running from closet to closet to piece together your outfit. The same applies to financial accounts.
If your accounts are scattered, it can be difficult, if not impossible, to understand what you’re invested in and where your money is located.
Weed Out
A mishmash of assets undermines effective financial planning. If you don’t know where your money is, you can’t minimize taxes by distinguishing between taxable and tax-deferred accounts. You also risk losing track of what you own and what needs rebalancing. For example, a desired 50-50 mix of stocks and bonds might now be 70-30, requiring adjustment to bring it back in line.
Guidelines for organizing your investments
Here are some practical guidelines for streamlining your investments:
Retirement Plans: Maintain one current 401(k) or 403(b) plan per person. Roll all previous 401(k) and 403(b) plans into a single Individual Retirement Account (IRA).
Brokerage Accounts: Limit yourself to no more than two brokerage accounts per individual or couple. While it’s fine to have a checking account at one brokerage and most holdings at another, exceeding two accounts creates unnecessary complexity. Spreading money across multiple brokerages to “see how each is doing” is counterproductive, as no single advisor can fully understand your portfolio.
Bank Products: Use no more than two banks for certificates of deposit, checking, and savings accounts per individual or couple.
Annuities: Consolidate multiple annuities if they aren’t burdened with surrender penalties. Consult your advisor before executing a 1035 exchange, which allows you to transfer funds into a comparable vehicle without incurring taxes on growth.
Insurance: Simplify your policies. One provider is usually sufficient for each type of coverage: life insurance, property-casualty, disability, and so on.
Mutual Funds: Avoid holding an excessive number of mutual funds, as they often duplicate each other. Redundant investments lead to asset class concentration rather than diversification. Ensure your portfolio includes a balanced mix of asset classes: short- and intermediate bonds (municipal, corporate, and global), large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. stocks, international developed markets stocks, and emerging markets. The appropriate weighting of each asset class depends on your risk tolerance, income needs, and growth objectives.
To identify overlapping mutual funds, consult your financial advisor. Names alone won’t reveal duplication. Remember, knowledge is power.
Remember the shadows and non-shadows
Contrary to popular belief, Punxsutawney Phil isn’t actually looking for his shadow. Instead, after his handlers retrieve him from his log and hold him aloft, they place him on a platform in front of two scrolls. Each scroll contains a prediction: either an early spring or six more weeks of winter. Phil points his nose at one, and his “prediction” is announced.
Final Thoughts
It’s prudent to start spring-cleaning your investments today – not six weeks from now. By consolidating and streamlining your portfolio, you can ensure it aligns with your financial goals and withstands market uncertainties.
Kent Patrick is with Bush Wealth Management. This information should not be construed by any client or prospective client as the rendering of personalized investment advice. For more information, please visit BushWealth.com for full disclosures.