The sports writer’s picks: NFL edition
Published 1:51 am Saturday, January 15, 2011
I got the itch again. It’s been a while since I ran a pick ’em column, and I can’t deny that while sitting at my desk yesterday, I really missed covering and writing about football.
It’s hard to let go, people. Even though high school football season has been done for a month, the college season is officially over and basketball is in full swing, I dearly miss writing about football.
Luckily, the NFL still has a few weeks left. Who knows, it might be the last few weeks of NFL football for a long time, with a possible lockout on the way.
So it’s time for me to take advantage of this opportunity and bring back the sports writer’s picks while I still can. I’m already upset I didn’t think of this last week for the Wild Card round, but there’s no sense boo-hooing over that. It’s still football, and that makes me happy.
Before I get to this week’s picks, let’s take a look at last week. The big surprise, and maybe one of the biggest surprises in NFL playoff history, was Seattle’s 41-36 win over defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans.
Call me crazy, but I wasn’t stunned that Seattle won. After seeing the Arizona Cardinals make the Super Bowl and come within a minute of winning it after going just 9-7 in the regular season, I’m well aware that a mediocre team can catch fire in the playoffs.
The Seahawks felt disrespected to be a 10-point underdog at home, and they used that and their home crowd as an advantage. To me, it’s not surprising they played well.
What did stun me was New Orleans’ defense. If Seattle was going to win that game, it was going to be because the Saints were without running backs Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas, and wouldn’t be able to find balance on offense. Well, the Saints still scored 36 points. That should be plenty to win a playoff game. It wasn’t, and that was because their defense was pathetic.
Tracy Porter’s pathetic attempted tackle on Marshawn Lynch was slightly less effective than his interception return for a touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl.
The other three Wild Card games weren’t that surprising. Without Peyton Manning, this year’s Colts would have been the AFC equivalent of the Rams, so to see the Jets win that game was expected. The Ravens used their smothering defense and playoff experience to smother the young Chiefs, and the Packers beat a Philadelphia team they were simply better than in all areas.
Now it’s on to the divisional round, where there are no Super Bowl pretenders. As far as I’m concerned, if a team has made it this far, then it should be respected and thought of as a legitimate title contender. OK, with the exception of Seattle.
We’ll start with the first game today, Baltimore at Pittsburgh. I love this matchup, and I think anyone who loves the game of football loves this matchup. There are no secrets between these teams. The Ravens and the Steelers pride themselves on playing physical football, especially on defense. They hate each other, but they respect each other. Steelers safety Ryan Clark said during the regular season that if he didn’t play for the Steelers, he’d want to play for the Ravens.
These teams play each other twice a year every year, and it seems like every other year, they meet in the playoffs. There might be a few wrinkles in the playbook, but I see these two teams playing a conservative, low-scoring game. Eventually one of the teams will convert a big third down in the fourth quarter or come up with a big stop late. It’s tough to say which team will do that.
I’m leaning towards the Steelers. They’re more rested coming off the bye week, and the Ravens are on a short week after playing Kansas City on Sunday. In a physical game like this, the healthier team has the advantage.
Pittsburgh over Baltimore, 20-17.
Tonight’s game is the one most of you are anticipating. The Falcons host Green Bay, with a trip to the NFC Championship game on the line.
I root for the Falcons, but this game gives me a bad feeling. I was hoping Atlanta would draw Seattle in the second round. If there was one team I didn’t want to see, it was the Packers.
Why? Because Green Bay was my preseason Super Bowl pick, along with Baltimore. I think the Packers have it all. A great quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, talented and proven wide receivers in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, a solid offensive line and a blitzing, stingy defense led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Clay Matthews.
The Packers were bit by the injury bug early in the season, but they have slowly figured some things out while getting healthier. The emergence of rookie running back James Starks makes them that much more dangerous.
However, the Packers remind me of the Dallas Cowboys last year: a talented team that got hot late and became a trendy pick to make the Super Bowl. Then-Minnesota coach Brad Childress told his Vikings’ team to keep its mouth shut as the “Tasmanian Devil” Cowboys made their way to Minneapolis in the divisional round.
The Vikings did, then they went out and proved they were the better team by humiliating Dallas 34-3.
I think we’ll see something similar tonight. Here come the buzzsaw Packers to the Georgia Dome to take on the unproven Falcons.
The Falcons are better. They have a balanced offense that can grind out a drive or strike for big plays. They’re disciplined and opportunistic on defense. They have a great weapons on special teams in return man Eric Weems and kicker Matt Bryant. Just ask Green Bay. Weems returned a long kickoff and Bryant knocked home a long field goal to beat the Pack in the regular season.
Atlanta over Green Bay, 24-17.
Bears fans have to be giddy. The only thing standing in the way of the Bears getting back to the NFC title game for the first time since 2007 is Seattle. The Seahawks are in the second round, and they’re still under .500. In fact, the Seahawks need to reach the Super Bowl to get to the 10-win mark. Somewhere, Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris and New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin (whose teams won 10 games each, but missed the playoffs) cringe at that thought.
It’s on a silver platter for Chicago. They Bears have had a week off, and now get to host one of the worst teams in postseason history. However, they are on upset alert. The Seahawks beat Chicago in Soldier Field in Week 6, 23-20. In that game, Jay Cutler was sacked six times behind a crumbling offensive line.
The Bears improved enough on offense to get the No. 2 seed in the NFC, but that improved offense was held to three points in Week 17 at Green Bay.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks torched New Orleans on the ground and through the air last week. After beating St. Louis to make the playoffs in Week 17, the Seahawks are actually a hot team.
Can they win, though?
No. Please. Get that junk out of here. They’ve lost seven games by at least three scores, and have been outscored by 97 points this year. They still stink.
Chicago over Seattle, 33-10.
The last game of the weekend is near and dear to my heart. I love the New England Patriots. I always have. They are my favorite team in any sport on any level in sports. I grew up in Massachusetts, and was glued to the TV watching Drew Bledsoe, Curtis Martin, Ben Coates and Willie McGinest.
I cheered for this team through thick and thin. I own every Super Bowl hat and matching T-shirt. I wear my Tom Brady jersey proudly on Sundays. I even put up Patriots wall paper and painted my room silver when I was younger. And that was after a 5-11 season.
Not only do I love the Patriots, I despise the Jets. Even if I didn’t like the Patriots, I would still hate the Jets. They talk too much. Rex Ryan won one Super Bowl as a coordinator, yet somehow he has this huge ego, and believes he has earned the right to run his mouth. Antonio Cromartie can’t even remember his own kids’ names, but he has enough time to think of his own special name for Brady (This is a family paper, so that’s not going to be repeated here. Google it.).
All the Jets do is talk, talk, talk. They haven’t won anything. What’s worse is they insist on talking even after getting beat 45-3 a month ago by New England. Oh, they ran their mouths before that game, too. Some people and some teams will never learn.
No way Bill Belichick is going to lose at home coming off a bye week. No way is Mark Sanchez going to come into Foxborough and pick apart the Patriots’ defense. No way is New England going to let big boy Rex walk his talk.
It’ll be closer than 45-3, but the Patriots will still win. The theme of these four picks is simple: the better teams will win. The Patriots are better than the Jets. Simple stuff.
New England over New York, 28-13.