CAMILLA — As Georgia pecan growers painstakingly tend to trees still traumatized by the devastation of Hurricane Michael, they see signs of hope in this season’s crop.

But after years of hurricane damage, droughts and the impact of the country’s unpredictable tariff wars, growers still wait for the other shoe to drop.

Peach State pecan growers have been slowly recouping salvageable trees and planting new ones after the Category 3 storm-ravaged farms in 2018.

Larry Wells, one of the state’s leading pecan experts, estimates the state lost 741,285 pecan trees and about 17% of the state’s pecan tree acreage when the natural disaster swept through the South. In total it was a $560 million loss to the industry.

Hurricane Irma wiped out about 30% of the state’s crop the previous year.

The event changed the course of the industry — which once dominated the national stage for pecan production. Following the damage of the storm, pecans saw a downturn in prices as cheaper nuts were imported from Mexico and trade with China froze because of the tariff wars.

On his 1,500-acre farm in Mitchell County, Miley Adams has replanted hundreds of trees but can still point to the older ones that barely survived.

Adams, president of the Georgia Growers Pecan Association, lost about 16% of his trees during the storm.

“We had a tremendous crop and then it was all on the ground,” he said. “Most of it I lost. It was a dramatic time.”

The next year was just as bad. The “shocked” trees that survived barely produced and the newly planted trees weren’t even close. Trees can take as long as 10 years to start bearing fruit.

For growers trying to keep their businesses afloat, the timeline is unforgiving.

“It just felt like somebody that’s sick,” he said. “Their immune system in not very good shape.”

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the Georgia pecan harvest was nearly cut in half last year.

Wells said before the hurricane, a big crop in Georgia was anywhere from 120 to 150 million pounds. Today, the state is expecting anywhere from 90 and 100 million pounds.

But this season’s crop looks better than it has in years, Wells said.

“Since 2010 we’ve planted lots of trees and we’re starting to see some of those trees really coming into production,” he said. “That’s picking up some of the slack from all the trees that were destroyed.”

The pecan expert said he “doesn’t see an end” to lower prices after cheaper pecans from Mexico are imported over domestically grown crops and the ongoing trade war with China has almost completely shut the door to that market.

“We’ve still got the issue of the importation of Mexican nut,” Wells said. “Mexico is now the number one producer of pecans in the world and we’re their number one customer. So that makes it difficult.”

In 2016, the average price per fund of pecans in Georgia was $2.50. That price dropped drastically to $1.63 per pound in 2018, but rose slightly to $1.90 per pound the next year.

Ken Apperson, who owns a pecan business in Moultrie, said it’s been a long time since Georgia had a good crop — growers saw their last bumper crop back in the late 2000s. 

“It’s looking like it’s going to be a pretty good season — if nothing happens,” he said. “If a drought doesn’t come along, or a tornado or a hurricane.”

Wells has stopped trying to predict the upcoming year’s prices given the trade war and the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade.

“It’s just so up in the air and with the COVID-19 issue, that throws another layer on top — just another complication,” he said. “We’re not really sure how that’s going to play out.”

The virus hit after most growers had sold their 2019 crop, Wells said, so the industry won’t see the total impact until this year’s harvest season begins.

“Most growers you know are just kind of holding their breath,” he said. “Just trying to take care of and manage the crop that they have.”