Gary Wisenbaker

The Congressional Budget Office recently issued a projection claiming that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will increase the federal deficit over the next 10 years.

That the CBO is wrong and that the socialist Democrats and legacy media lap it up like a cat at a milk bowl is nothing new.

This is not the first time the CBO has taken a pessimistic view of pro-growth legislation. In fact, it made a similar error with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which it projected would significantly inflate the deficit. The reality turned out differently. Revenues rose in the years following the tax cuts, and the economy expanded faster than expected — an outcome the CBO failed to foresee because of its reliance on flawed methods of fiscal analysis.

The core of the CBO’s miscalculation lies in its use of static scoring. This analytical tool assumes that changes in tax policy do not alter economic behavior. In other words, if a tax cut reduces government revenue by $100 billion on paper, static scoring assumes the government simply loses $100 billion—period.

That kind of reasoning is sophomoric at best.

But real-world economics doesn’t work that way. When tax rates change, people and businesses change how they work, spend invest, and grow. That’s where dynamic scoring comes in, and that’s where the CBO repeatedly fails to account for the broader economic impact of smart tax policy.

Dynamic scoring considers the ripple effects of policy changes: greater investment, higher productivity, job creation and increased consumer spending. When these effects are factored in, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is not a deficit driver but a long-term deficit reducer. Just as the 2017 tax cuts fueled a wave of corporate investment, wage growth and record-low unemployment, the Big Beautiful Bill is structured to create a similar economic surge — but with even more strategic enhancements.

One key driver of that growth will be the provision for immediate expensing of factory upgrades and large-scale equipment. This allows businesses — both new startups and established manufacturers — to deduct the full cost of machinery and infrastructure in the year it’s purchased.

That’s a powerful incentive to expand operations, build domestic capacity and modernize supply chains. With greater productivity comes stronger GDP growth and, ultimately, higher tax revenues from both businesses and workers.

The bill also includes reductions in taxes on overtime, tips and Social Security income. These aren’t just economic footnotes; they are targeted reliefs that hit right at the heart of the American middle class.

When workers take home more of their earnings, they spend more. That drives demand across the economy — everything from retail and hospitality to durable goods and housing. Increased demand fuels hiring, which in turn creates more taxpayers and more revenue.

And here’s a benefit the CBO doesn’t even attempt to measure: the way sustained economic growth impacts interest rates and home affordability. A thriving economy, with controlled inflation and healthy tax revenues, creates confidence in U.S. fiscal stability. This reduces long-term borrowing costs and exerts downward pressure on mortgage interest rates.

Lower rates make homes more affordable, stimulate construction and further boost the economy through related industries like materials, labor and home furnishings.

Critics might argue that dynamic scoring is overly optimistic or speculative, but history tells a different story. The Reagan tax cuts of the 1980s and the 2017 reforms both produced stronger growth than static models predicted.

Dynamic scoring reflects economic reality: people respond to incentives and a well-designed tax and spending package can pay for itself through increased activity and broader prosperity.

The CBO has a role to play but it is neither infallible nor dependable.

Its track record — especially regarding tax policy — is mixed at best. By continuing to rely on static scoring, the CBO offers an incomplete and misleading view of what the Big Beautiful Bill will actually do. When evaluated through a dynamic lens, this bill is not a fiscal threat — it is a blueprint for growth, prosperity and long-term deficit reduction.

It’s time to look beyond the static spreadsheets and see the dynamic bigger picture.

Gary Wisenbaker is a REALTOR© with Century 21 Realty Advisors and can be reached at gary50155@gmail.com and 912-713-2553.