The national narrative about the housing market tends towards the negative. But that’s not necessarily the case in every region.

The Valdosta, Georgia residential real estate market presents a complex picture as it navigates fluctuating national trends and local buyer demand. The market is basically at an “ebb tide” as there’s a balance between supply availability and demand.

With 380 homes on the market priced between $125,000 and $850,000, Valdosta provides a range of options for homebuyers, though affordability remains an issue for many. The average days on the market (DOM) for homes is around 53 days, indicating moderate buyer interest but not a rapid turnover, possibly affected by economic conditions and elevated mortgage rates.

The median list price in Valdosta stands at $260,000, with a median selling price of $219,000, signaling a noticeable gap between seller expectations and buyer negotiations. This 16% difference suggests that buyers are exercising caution and bargaining power in the face of affordability challenges.

With the national 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.5% in August and edging upward in September, higher borrowing costs may be limiting the pool of eligible buyers, especially among first-time homebuyers. But considering that mortgage rates have historically ranged between 5% and 7% this elevated rate is anything but draconian (there was a time, remember, in the mid-1980’s that a good rate was 18%!).

The national picture influences Valdosta’s market as well, at least peripherally. Personnel rotations at MAFB, as well as SGMC and VSU, tend to insulate Valdosta from some of the more erratic national trends.

For example, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts a modest 0.1% price increase from August to September 2024 and a projected 2.3% year-over-year increase through August 2025. Though Valdosta’s real estate market typically has unique dynamics, these small gains reflect nationwide affordability concerns.

And while nationally homebuilder confidence, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index, dropped to 39 in August from 41, showing that builders are concerned about higher mortgage rates, rising material costs, and softening buyer demand, Valdosta-Lowndes County boasts a robust residential new construction market.

So, while housing starts nationwide were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million in July, it saw a 6.8% decline from June, with single-family housing starts dropping 14.1% month-over-month and 14.8% year-over-year. These declines in new housing supply may limit future inventory and could eventually lead to increased competition for existing homes, potentially boosting home values in Valdosta. But the robustness in the Valdosta construction market will tend to keep not only new construction prices stabilized but existing home prices as well.

In conclusion, Valdosta’s residential real estate market is adjusting to economic challenges while remaining stable. The gap between list and sale prices suggests room for negotiation, and moderate DOM shows a balanced market.

However, higher mortgage rates could continue to impact both buyer demand and supply dynamics, and that could suggest that price growth may remain tempered into 2025. And when coupled with a sharp increase in the Consumer Confidence Index from the high 90’s to 108 (as consumers look forward to a new administration coming in 2025, whichever one it might be), demand will clearly increase.

Bottom line: now is an opportune time to buy or sell. Home prices will increase. Mortgage rates may or may not increase but that six-plus percent mortgage is very manageable moving forward because of what could be some very attractive refinance options.

As is said, “Marry the house and date the rate.”

Gary Wisenbaker (gary@realtyadvisorsga.com) is a REALTOR® at Century 21 Realty Advisors and can be reached at 912 713 2553 and gary50155@gmail.com