VALDOSTA – A recession in 2020 is unlikely, according to three economists addressing nearly 200 area business leaders.

The economists made the forecast during the Valdosta-Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce’s Business Outlook Breakfast, sponsored for the seventh consecutive year by Southeastern Credit Union at the James H. Rainwater Conference Center.

Economic experts assessed expected performance on the national, state and local levels, chamber officials said. 

Dr. Roger Tutterow, director of the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University, Dr. Jeffery Humphreys, director of Selig Center for Economic Growth at the University of Georgia, and Dr. Cynthia Tori, a professor of economics at Valdosta State University, agreed overall the future looks bright for the U.S., the State of Georgia and Lowndes County, chamber officials said.

“As a credit union, we have an obligation to serve the community and we can’t think of a better way than to support the chamber,” said Mike Gudely, president of Southeastern Credit Union. “This breakfast is relevant to everyone in our community. Understanding the economy is incredibly important for all and we are delighted to help bring this opportunity.”

Tutterow noted that while an 11-year trend of growth is unusual, it does not necessarily indicate a national recession is imminent. While Tutterow feels the odds of a recession in 2020 are less than 30%, he noted the Cornonavirus and possible impacts of future tariffs can impact future growth.

Humphreys was likewise confident a Georgia recession in 2020 is unlikely. Consumer spending, stability in Federal Reserve support, home building, increased development, higher defense spending and continued population growth are the economic ingredients that will fuel future growth, he said.

Trade deals and tariffs, he said, are the wild card. 

“Georgia is the 11th largest export state and seventh largest import state in agricultural goods,” Humphreys said. 

Trade wars have hit rural Georgia harder than other areas of the state and could lead to a mild recession for the rural areas in 2020 if expanded.

After reiterating what Tutterow and Humphreys said about economic growth, trade and the Coronavirus, Tori talked about the chamber’s proposed Valdosta Area Business Incubator. 

“Business who get their start in a small business incubator have an 87% success rate,” Tori said. 

The failure rate for non-incubated startup businesses is about 80%, chamber officials said.

Tori said the Lowndes housing market has stabilized and begun to improve, although it has yet to regain the pre-recession value of Lowndes County homes.

Tori touched on the structural changes happening in the retail market, economic headwinds that will affect the local area, and the strengths of the local labor force generated by VSU and Wiregrass Georgia Technical College, chamber officials said.