Trump’s miscues could make Georgia competitive for Clinton

Published 12:00 pm Saturday, August 6, 2016

ATLANTA — Donald Trump’s high-profile missteps and controversies have done more than just expose fissures within the Republican Party.

The GOP presidential nominee’s gaffs are leading Democrats in reliably red states — including Georgia — to rethink their chances of affecting the outcome of a national election.

That’s something Georgia Democrats haven’t considered in decades, said Kenneth Ellinger, a political science professor at Dalton State College.

“Trump and his weaknesses as a candidate at least give Democrats a reason to hope that their candidate may decide to continue to compete in Georgia until Election Day,” he said. “And if that happens, that will be a bit of a victory right there.”

Should Hillary Clinton collect Georgia’s 16 electoral votes on Nov. 8, it will mark the first time the state has picked a Democrat for president since voting for her husband over President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

No Democratic presidential nominee has made a serious play here since 2000.

What’s more, everyone knows it. Peach State Democrats have watched each candidate since Al Gore — including Barack Obama, who pledged a full-court press in every state — withdraw resources well before the election.

Recent polls suggest reasons for optimism for Georgia Democrats.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution released a new poll Friday that showed Hillary Clinton leading with 41 percent to Trump’s 38 percent in a four-way contest, with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. The poll was conducted earlier this week, following a string of embarrassing mistakes for Trump.

Even before that, polls showed the potential for a competitive race in Georgia. Trump only led Clinton 46 percent to 44 percent in a Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone poll after last month’s Republican National Convention.

Ellinger said Trump’s position on issues won’t lose votes in Georgia. Rather, controversies on the campaign trail will take a toll, particularly among more moderate Republicans.

Ellinger said Trump’s forceful reaction to criticism from the parents of a Muslim Army captain killed in Iraq was just one of many “self-inflicted wounds.”

Trump’s controversies are a source of frustration for Matt Williamson, chairman of the Walker County Republican Party in northwest Georgia. But it’s hard to tell, he said, if they’re costing Trump votes.

For now, said Williamson, people are still hitting him up for Trump signs.

For his part, Williamson is still waiting for the inexperienced politician to show more discipline and demonstrate that he is taking the election seriously.

“You could have gone on vacation for two weeks and done better than what you’re doing by going out and making all these mistakes,” he said of Trump.

“But there is a sense that there’s 94 days till the election,” he said Friday. “There’s plenty of time to make up for lost ground, but he’s got to do it.”

Williamson said he believes the state’s Democrats are hopeful because the New York real estate developer remains electorally unknown, with little established in the primaries.

Trump won about 39 percent of the GOP primary vote statewide, but Williamson noted that a majority of voters in conservative Walker County preferred one of the other candidates.

He said he doesn’t know what to make of that just yet.

That doesn’t mean Republicans in Georgia — or anywhere in the South — are likely to consider Clinton as an alternative, said Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University.

The polarized nature of politics today, not to mention Clinton’s own baggage, will deter that, he said.

But a disengaged Republican base can also be damaging.

“It’s not that they switch their vote. It’s just that they don’t show up, and then it could make it a lot closer in Georgia, possibly,” Tamas said.

The AJC’s poll also showed that Johnson may be getting traction, with 11 percent of those polled favoring the third-party candidate.

The July poll showed him with 5 percent support.

If Clinton’s campaign senses opportunity, it could force Trump to devote valuable resources here to keep from losing the state, Tamas said.

“There’s a lot of dynamics working against him right now,” he said.

Even so, Ellinger isn’t expecting the state to go purple, much less blue, at least not this year.

“Georgia’s still such a red state that even Donald Trump probably won’t mess that up,” he said. “He’ll probably win in spite of himself.”

Jill Nolin covers the Georgia Statehouse for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach her at jnolin@cnhi.com.